Brazil faces elevated heat risk from November to January
October 30
São Paulo, October 28 — Brazil’s Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation warned of unusual heat during November 2026–January 2027, linked to El Niño. Most areas could average 1–2°C above normal; parts of Pará could reach anomalies of 2–3°C.
The outlook was issued jointly on October 27 by INPE’s weather and climate centre, the national meteorological institute and Ceará’s meteorology and water-resources foundation. INPE meteorologist Caio Coelho said daytime temperatures in several regions had reached 35°C, sometimes approaching 40°C.
Atmospheric blocking could sustain heatwaves, especially in central Brazil. Southern Brazil faces wetter conditions; parts of Rio Grande do Sul and southern Santa Catarina could consequently be cooler than normal.
Drier conditions are possible across much of the north, parts of the northeast, Mato Grosso and Goiás. Some areas of Roraima, northern and eastern Amazonas, and central-northern Pará could receive up to 200 millimetres less rain than usual.
El Niño is altering atmospheric circulation. A northward shift of the subtropical jet also helped spread September rainfall into southeastern Brazil. The weather service stressed that seasonal outlooks do not replace short-range forecasts.