Pacific water supplies face pressure as El Niño strengthens
November 5
WMO reported on November 5 that strengthening El Niño threatens Pacific water supplies during November 2026–January 2027. Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga already experienced shortages during May–October.
Rainfall deficits are forecast from Palau to the Marshall Islands and central/southern Papua New Guinea to southern French Polynesia. Nauru–eastern Kiribati should be wetter.
Temperatures should exceed normal across most western/central tropical Pacific areas and Papua New Guinea–New Caledonia. Fiji–southern French Polynesia may be cooler. Eastern Kiribati faces strong-to-extreme marine heatwaves; central/eastern Kiribati reefs face bleaching through February 2027.
El Niño could persist through March–May 2027, with effects lasting longer. WMO described a high probability of the strongest event since 1950.
November–April southwest Pacific cyclone activity is forecast near/above normal, especially near/east of the Date Line. Western areas may see normal/below-normal activity, but severe cyclones remain possible.
The October 23 outlook followed the October 20–21 Port Moresby climate forum. Reviews recorded over 57 deaths in maritime disasters across Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Fiji; cyclones caused nine deaths in Chuuk. Dengue outbreaks, additional infections in Vanuatu and fish deaths associated with lower seas were also reported.